Back in early September, I noticed that FTSE 100 oil juggernaut BP‘s (LSE: BP) shares had slumped to a 52-week low. Sadly for those holding this dividend stock, it’s only got worse since. A new nadir was set yesterday (30 October).
However, there’s another top-tier company that’s lagging the market by some margin.
Oil price fall
BP’s woes really kicked in around April of this year. At this point, the oil price began to decline from just over $90 a barrel. Despite a yo-yoing around in the months since, it now sits just above $70.
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Q3 numbers, released on 29 October, showed just how much this had harmed the bottom line. Profit of $2.27bn was significantly lower than over the same three-month period in 2023 (albeit beating City expectations).
While the company did its best to raise spirits by initiating another share buyback, it failed to stop the share price rot.
Dividends at risk?
The problem is that the headwinds for BP keep piling up. For example, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has just announced that the windfall tax on those producing oil and gas in the North Sea — aka the Energy Profits Levy — will rise from 35% to 38% on 1 November.
Unless the oil price recovers soon, I wouldn’t be surprised if investors started to fret about a dividend cut.
On the other hand, the shares continue to look very cheap on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just seven. The current yield of 6.2% might also be worth the risk, especially if new(ish) CEO Murray Auchincloss can guide the company through this sticky patch, reduce debt and get its green energy credentials back in focus. He certainly has his work cut out.
Having previously considered buying the stock a few weeks ago, I’ve returned to feeling neutral about BP. I’ll keep watching for now.
Hot stock no more
B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE: BME) has also had a pretty awful 12 months. As I type, the share price has tumbled 22% since this time last year.
Such a poor run of form is in sharp contrast to 2023. Back then, shoppers turned to discounters like this in an attempt to make their money stretch as far as possible. Sales duly soared, as did the company’s value.
But B&M has struggled to keep this momentum going as inflation has fallen. Tellingly, analysts at UBS stated in September that the firm’s prices were no longer as competitive with supermarkets Tesco and Sainsbury as they once were.
Cheap income
On the other hand, B&M shares currently change hands on a P/E ratio of 10. Sure, that’s more expensive than BP. But this smacks of comparing apples with oranges. Relative to the market as a whole, it still looks very reasonable. Indeed, me buying now could prove a masterstroke in time if the company is able to continue expanding in France at a fair clip.
At 3.7% based on analyst estimates, the yield isn’t bad either. It’s also more than I’d get from a standard FTSE 100 tracker.
I think I’ll wait to read the next set of numbers before deciding whether I want to bring this stock into my portfolio.
Interim results are due on 14 November.
